California Voters Are Primed to Reject Minimum Wage Increase, Poll Shows

Voters in California will decide next month whether to raise the state’s minimum wage from $16 to $18 an hour. But a recent poll shows that support for the initiative has fallen below 50 percent, leading to doubts about its chances of passage.
A recent Berkeley IGS poll shows that only 46 percent of likely voters support Proposition 32, which would raise the statewide minimum wage—a 6-point drop since August.
Polling data reflects growing uncertainty about the measure. Early surveys showed strong support, but the latest Berkeley poll reveals increasing opposition among key voter groups, particularly independents and moderates.
The state’s no-party-preference voters, who supported the initiative by a 19-point margin in August, are now evenly split. Political moderates have also shifted, with support dropping from 49 percent to 40 percent.
Support remains strong in major urban centers like Los Angeles and San Francisco, where the minimum wage already exceeds $17 in many areas. But in the more conservative Central Valley and inland regions, voters are much more skeptical.
Currently, minimum wage laws vary across California. Most cities follow the state’s minimum wage, while a few, like West Hollywood, Berkeley and San Francisco, pay more than $18 an hour.
If passed, Proposition 32 would give California the highest minimum wage in the country, raising it to $18 by 2025 for large employers and by 2026 for small businesses.
Labor unions and progressive advocates argue that the increase is crucial to help low-wage workers keep up with California’s skyrocketing cost of living. The proposition has gained support from the California Democratic Party as well as the editorial board of the Los Angeles Times.
The man behind Proposition 32, anti-poverty advocate and investor Joe Sanberg, has made the wage hike a personal crusade. After failing to get a similar measure on the 2022 ballot, Sanberg poured millions into the 2024 campaign, arguing that the increase is vital to help lift low-income workers out of poverty.
But business groups are pushing back hard, framing the measure as a job killer in an already fragile economy. The California Chamber of Commerce, the California Grocers Association and restaurant industry groups argue that raising the minimum wage would lead to higher consumer prices, making it harder for local businesses to survive amid other rising costs.
Governor Gavin Newsom has yet to take an official position on Proposition 32, leaving both supporters and opponents waiting for a potential endorsement that could shift the campaign’s dynamics before voters decide on November 5.